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Discussion in 'Life After Scientology' started by Glenda, May 6, 2017.
Stunning great post, Glenda! Belongs in Golden Quotes!
Re: Justice and accountability issues
I had my phone with me. It has a camera on it which seems to take fairly okay photos.
It was just a magical moment. xxx
On my left, the dawn.
On my right, the moon in the night sky.
Left brings the new day.
Right holds the secrets of the night.
Indulging more in the magical moments of both the day and the night sharing a little time together.
Taken 13th March, 2017. Gisborne, NZ.
I wasn't alone that morning.
There were some people on the beach ceremonially
welcoming in the new day.
Small hints of the day capturing the night.
Re: The value of getting up close and personal with language
For me being an observer and knowing I'm an observer is the key - observing everything ( body, mind, identities, birds and bees) and knowing that the observer is who I really am. Seems that you are quite an observer !
Pondering loads of things. It's raining hard here. There's a bit of a weather system crawling over NZ, something about a cyclone up north of here now passing over us. Ten years after leaving scientology I am interested in weather patterns.
I am also interested in earthquakes and the research being done on the Hikurangi Trench. What's that? It's this significant fracture in the earths crust where two major tectonic plates meet and collide. It's a big deal. It has generated mega-quakes (hundreds of years ago).
I live near the Trench. Seismic energy is wild. More powerful than anything man is capable of. This fascinates me. A few months ago I went to a public meeting where some seismic scientists were speaking. There's so much they don't know. They are working hard to find some parameters (time-wise) of what we can possibly expect. But who the hell knows. Hold 3x PhDs and 30 years experience and there is always something new and unexpected that throws the research into a spin. Like slow-slips. That's where the plates move, release tonnes of energy, but so slowly no humans feel it. It's wild. Slow-slips have only been known (& documented) about since the early 2000's.
We have a slow-slip near where I live. The ground I walk on is (often) constantly moving but we don't feel it. A huge quake up (7+) is going on but very very slowly. What's not to be fascinated about that.
So on this rainy day, ten years after leaving a teeny weeny, ever diminishing cult, I ponder weather systems and seismic energy.
Do you go to any of the earthquake sites, such as the USGS: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ or Quakewatch.net ? When LA was getting a swarm of earthquakes around the time of the Northridge quake I went there a lot. Mammoth Lake, which is a volcano caldera, was getting over a thousand a week. Today it had only 8, however, LA had ten today, Frisco had 22. You can look up NZ on their maps as well.
If the New Madrid fault pops, and as bad as it did last time, it could result in $ trillions of damage, knock down the bridges over the Mississippi river, killing east west traffic. Could take years to rebuild them. See the image of how it went down last time. PS It was a much larger quake than the 6.0 on the drawing - see below.
more at link
Here's a great link about the quake and it says the probabilities are greater than the above link - which begs the question: Why is the Missouri site playing it down?
Thanks heaps for the info and links Mimsey. Interesting. Yes I do go to other earthquake monitoring sites though fairly rarely these days as I tend to mainly watch the NZ monitoring site (geonet).
We continue to learn after big events such as up in Japan (2011) and the 7.8 here in NZ last year (Kaikoura, Nov 2016), and for NZ, the previous highly destructive quakes down in Christchurch (2010 and 2011. Deaths 189. R.I.P.).
I felt the 7.8 near Kaikoura (east coast, South Island, NZ) last November. I've felt a lot of earthquakes, growing up with them. Even though I was a long way from the epicentre, I felt the quake fairly strongly. The quake was felt over most of NZ. The energy waves were powerful. I forget the figures on the amount of energy generated, but it was astounding. Because I have been through many earthquakes I instinctively knew it was huge quake even before the monitoring data started coming in. It was long, lasting just under two mins which is a very long time for an earthquake. Personally it changed a lot for me. I had never felt that much energy shifting beneath me.
The scientists are still gathering data on the Kaikoura quake as the horizontal and vertical land shifts were significant and several fault-lines ruptured. It was a complicated quake. Thankfully the quake hit at midnight when most people were safely tucked up in bed. Quakes take less lives when they hit in the night. However they tend to have a more profound psychological impact when you can't see what the hell has happened and you lose infrastructure like electricity, etc. (note: one person died in the 7.8 Kaikoura quake. R.I.P. It hit a low-populated area; it happened at midnight being the main relevant reasons.)
After a big quake the after-shock sequence is significant. Our scientists released probability figures every few days as to the probable magnitude/frequency of quakes for the days/months ahead. Thankfully they got it wrong, the right way. Their probability figures came in much lower in reality (does that make sense?). So right there we learned that probability figures are just that. Probabilities based on the best available info. It was horrible because everyone was craving certainty. Lesson? There is no certainty possible with seismic activity. The reality is we are working with limited data and we can crave certainty, but it won't produce anything except a churning gut and worry.
Why could there be a "playing down" of a potential mega-quake which could kill thousands and cripple a large region for considerable time? I see this in very grey terms. There is no simple answer, imo. Seismic science is relatively new. Add to that the conspiracy theories which people get into regarding this stuff, which imo, only adds troubling emotional responses. Then you have the what-the-hell-would-we-do if we did know a mega-quake was due (overdue)? Add into the mix that good science costs loads of money and takes time, I see any possible "playing down" as a complex set of issues. Most people in NZ know we live right on top of two major tectonic plates and if significant energy is released we are in trouble. We know from historical digs and the limited historical data going back to the 1800's NZ gets mega-quakes. It really helps to have a really cool-headed calm approach to all this.
NZ is a sitting duck for what is known as the Alpine Fault-line rupturing. If that fault goes they will probably feel it in Australia. Serious reconfiguration of NZ land-mass as we know it time. Also if the Hikurangi Trench packs a true wobbly, I have no idea if I will still be an ESMB member. I know we will probably not have much infrastructure remaining. I accept it would be completely chaotic. Should I run and hide just in case it happens? This is my home. I've given this a LOT of thought. I stay, face the demons and get on with living life just like everyone else in my street, my city, my country.
NZ has strict earthquake building standards/regulations. Recently they have come up for inspection (again) given what happened in Christchurch and the Kaikoura quake last year. The fact is earthquakes, preparing for potential outcomes and aftermaths, costs zillions. I think overall people in general would rather avoid the subject and the cost. It may never happen in our lifetime type approach. The insurance industry here has changed dramatically the past few years. It has been a nightmare for many.
Probabilities are all that the scientists can work with at this stage. There is no capability for prediction. I think that may change in the next decade where some level of prediction can be used. There’s been some interesting studies out of Italy(?) collating data on events on fault-lines prior to larger quakes.
So how do authorities handle this without scaring the hell out of people? That's the million dollar question and one which I think is being managed as well as it can be here in NZ. It can get highly emotional for many people. No one wants to feel this out of control. This is scary stuff. Bad weather, you get satellite imagery and can get out of the way if resources allow. Earthquakes just hit.
The first approach of making it through lies with the individual. Being prepared, not scared. Relying on a "nanny-state" mentality (govt. agencies should take care of me, notify me, prepare me, blah, blah blah) is not going to make an iota of difference if a large fault line ruptures. Here in NZ we have a fairly robust Civil Defense (national emergency response system). We are told over and over to be prepared, not scared. Panic freezes people. It’s a fine line to walk for any agency – how to inform people, get them off their bums to be prepared, without driving them into a state of panic.
The fact is if a mega-quake hits, it can kill people. There is no way to sweeten that reality. I suspect the worst part is immediately after the quake. There is a huge uncertainty about what happens next in the first few minutes after a big quake. Coastal dwellers need to know their region and get to safe ground to survive any tsunami activity. Depending on various factors, there may only be ten minutes to get to higher ground. Where I live I have ten minutes (ref: Hikurangi Trench movement). I need to know what the hell to do after a long strong quake. This is a simple fact of life. There is no point in bringing emotions into this. Know what to do, practice it. It gets tough after a big quake. The aftershocks are a bitch. They can go on for a couple of years. They keep re-traumatising people who are already hyper-sensitive and in high-struggle mode to re-build infrastructures.
All the science in the world, every academic paper, all the research reported on, becomes abruptly irrelevant when Mother Nature kicks up her heels. It won't matter what the authorities may or may not be down-playing. Imo, there is sufficient data to get real & get prepared. Leave emotions out of the equation and get some canned food, some water, etc., etc. Know a few simple things to help keep you safe if the earth moves!
I think ultimately, Mother Nature is the boss in all this. No political system, no amount of money, no super groovy detection science/systems can compete with her commanding seismic power. Perhaps being respectful of Mother Nature, pragmatic and prepared, not scared, is all any of us can do.
I think they are seriously mis-guided. There are almost no EQ building codes in the middle USA. LA, Frisco & the rest of CA are very EQ focused in the building codes, and in LA there was a massive enforced retro fit program for all unreinforced buildings. They are now starting the "soft story" program to upgrade all the apartment buildings with apartments over the parking areas. That has never happened in the mid west.
You have an increase in man made quakes due to fracking in Oklahoma, and an attitude that "it can't happen here" about a quake in the mid west. There are thousands of buildings up on cinder blocks because of flooding concerns that will jump off their foundations in a big quake. Well, if it hits, they will be instituting the EQ codes.
In LA it has been a process taking years - have EQ in Sylmar - improve codes, see Kobe have an EQ, increase codes, have LA trashed in Northridge quake, improve codes. It has been a learning process the mid west hasn't confronted as yet.
I am glad NZ has tough codes. When the Northridge quake hit, many many latino's camped out in the parks, afraid to return to their houses. Why? Their houses in central america mostly fall down in earthquakes due to the lack of such building codes.
We shall see.
There is quake prediction - go to quakewatch.net They have an app for your phone. There is a lot of study going on between the relationship between electric currents and EQ. How the solar flares and solar wind charge our atmosphere and the charge flows down into the crust causing large (6.0 and larger) quakes.
I saw an interesting video where they send electricity into Olivine ( the most prevalent stone in the crust and it moves away from electric charge, but water is attracted. and how it prefers to pass through cracks stone. It's all very interesting. There is a video of this with an audio explanation somewhere on line, but I couldn't find it. Here they tinted the water green so you could see it being attracted, and the small sand is Olivine and you can see it being repelled. In the second video you can see how it seeks the path of least resistance to pass through rock.
Thanks for this Mimsey. Yet to look at the vids. Find myself in the middle of reading a Masters Thesis (on unmarried women having children 1950s/1960s) at the moment which is holding my attention.
The 1931 Napier earthquake here in NZ set a precedent for our building codes (256 deaths, R.I.P.). What didn't fall down in the initial quake, or in the aftershocks, was burnt down. A tragedy in our short history. I lived in Napier for ten years and it is like the ghosts from that era remain. The city was rebuilt with a lot of Art Deco architecture. It is a very beautiful collection of buildings but one cannot escape the fact of why they exist.
NZ tends to build low-rise or highly flexible if any height involved. Obviously we have high-rises in the bigger cities but they are designed to take a lot of movement. They sway. I've never been in a high-rise during a quake but I've heard it is quite a freaky experience.
Don't get me started about fracking and messing around with the crust of the earth. Grrrr.
Just quickly scanned that quakewatch link. Thanks again. Need to study it more. There is some data around about deep seismic movement and energy transference. I've followed it for a while and it is very interesting, and disconcertingly accurate. It takes time to learn this stuff though and I am merely a novice. I have observed when deep quakes hit north of NZ in certain locations, that energy transfers south towards NZ and produces a larger shallower quake. I would have thought this was gobbly-gook unless I had followed it for many months. The way the energy is released can be either in small swarms (preferably) or in one large whacking quake.
Time to get back to reading this most excellent social history thesis.
The energy for quakes comes from sections of the earth's crust (plates) shifting by each other. When they become locked together, the energy builds until it's enough to break whatever had them locked together.
If fracking results in a large number of small quakes, instead of letting things build up for one big one, wouldn't that be a good thing?
Yes and no. If the smaller swarm quakes merely released pressure, and that was all it did to the crust, fine. But swarm quakes can potentially also add extra pressure to larger faults.
Generally swarming does not activate larger events however there is not sufficient evidence that it can't. Recently we had a fairly significant swarming event in the middle of the Nth Island. Hundreds of tiny earthquakes, every few minutes, that went on for a couple of weeks. The risk with an event like this one is that it can trigger something else. While it is thought to be a low risk, it is one of the reasons our scientists watched this swarming event very closely to study how it behaved.
When the 7.8 hit (Kaikoura, Nov, 2016) , the energy released from that traveled a huge distance (nearly the entire length of NZ). This activated some slow-slips on the two tectonic plates that NZ sits on. That increased pressure on other fault-lines. Our scientists were worried, in a trained calm sort of way. So we know that the energy transfers in ways we are still learning about. The 7.8 event released huge energy and this gave scientists a lot to play with and learn from (the upside of a huge quake). The fact is there is still a lot to learn about seismic activity and its potential risks to humans.
I do not think it is wise to categorically state, in black and white terms, that fracking is without risks to upsetting pressure on surrounding fault-lines. Even with reasonably good geology info of a region, there is potential risk of disturbing something. It is a highly contentious issue. It is also fraught with large economic issues/complications which can become an insane driving force.
I tend to think about fracking a bit like engineers look at zero-fault operations. You can plan for every possible outcome, push the parameters way out in an attempt to take into account zillions of variables. But there is always potentially going to be a pesky anomaly that blows the project sky-high.
Depends. It could be an unintended benefit or not. Depends where something or someone is standing when the 'little' or big one hit.
Split Estate trailer links
An informative documentary on fracking called Split Estate came out in about 2009. Split estate is when the home/land owners don't own the mineral rights so big oil companies snatch them up resulting in tragic consequences for the people living next to the fracking operations. I saw the entire documentary on PBS for free but if anyone is inclined to buy a DVD it's well worth watching. Keep in mind the DVD's are region 1 only (U.S. & Canada) unless you own a multi-region blu ray/dvd player.
it's the waste water they inject that is the problem:
I think this last is bogus - the San Andreas fault is about 800 miles long and the fracking is in the la basin. The fault is more north than through the basin itself. Not to down play the result of a big quake - I don't think fracking is mitigating the possibility of a large quake on the fault line.
More at link:
by James Conca Forbes Contributor
!!!! - I'll be - that's the source of Miscavage's 47X graph !!!! What a find.
Whoa! Here's Gary.
Gary Scott was the extraordinary Producer of the documentary I participated in back in 2009. I spent many hours on the phone with him, bashing our way through the details of my interview and also the legal drama the cult threw at me and Gibson Group (production company).
I've never seen this interview before this morning.
He speaks briefly about the cult documentary starting at 9:22.
"The most stressful one I've done recently was How to Spot a Cult for TV3, where, you know, you're dealing with people who have; a) been through traumatic experiences and; b) you've got some quite strong enemies who don't really like what you're doing, to wit scientology. So, you know, that was quite involving."
Thank you Gary. For your perseverance, your patience, your kindness, your stunning intelligence and for having such a strong awesome team around you. xxx
Digital libraries rock!
What an interesting world. Ya gotta love digital libraries and old books. I'm reading a book written by a princess. Once upon a time her and her prince owned a house called Saint Hill Manor in Sussex, England.
How very cool living in the 21st century and having access to all this information from one's living room.