Flag and the Gulf Oil Spill

[Dulloldfart]

I know it's not really a spill, but "oil leak" doesn't quite evoke the right image.

There is an article on 'Firms “suspending investments in Florida banks” because of oil spill' at http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/firms-suspending-investments-in-florida-banks-because-of-oil-spill.

There are mentions of the first traces of BP oil nearing Tampa Bay.

It is possible that this fiasco will result in the sea floor collapsing around the site of the drill hole (see this article), and the whole reservoir will bleed out, i.e., an estimated billion barrels (40 billion gallons) of oil gushing out at the current rate of maybe 100,000 barrels a day for 25-30 years. That would be very roughly 300 times the amount of oil that has been released to date.

With 25 hurricane seasons blowing the surface stuff all over the coast, that would make the Gulf coast not the nicest place to live, if the coastal areas will even be livable at all with the air pollution. I can see several insurance companies going tits up over this disaster.

Maybe Flag in Clearwater will shut down for different reasons than we expected.

Paul

 

[OTBT]

Assorted idiots have suggested using a subsea nuclear bomb to seal the leak.

/ facepalm

There are roughly 3,500 offshore oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. A large percentage of these rigs are operated by BP.

I leave it to others to connect the dots.

 

[The Anabaptist Jacques]

I know it's not really a spill, but "oil leak" doesn't quite evoke the right image.

There is an article on 'Firms “suspending investments in Florida banks” because of oil spill' at http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/firms-suspending-investments-in-florida-banks-because-of-oil-spill.

There are mentions of the first traces of BP oil nearing Tampa Bay.

It is possible that this fiasco will result in the sea floor collapsing around the site of the drill hole (see this article), and the whole reservoir will bleed out, i.e., an estimated billion barrels (40 billion gallons) of oil gushing out at the current rate of maybe 100,000 barrels a day for 25-30 years. That would be very roughly 300 times the amount of oil that has been released to date.

With 25 hurricane seasons blowing the surface stuff all over the coast, that would make the Gulf coast not the nicest place to live, if the coastal areas will even be livable at all with the air pollution. I can see several insurance companies going tits up over this disaster.

Maybe Flag in Clearwater will shut down for different reasons than we expected.

Paul

I live in this area and believe me what you are saying is on the minds and in the conversation of people everyday. I have had conversations with people who intend on moving from the area. On Memorial Day weekend in Pinellas County, which includes Clearwater, there were over 1,000 cancellations of hotel and motel rooms and condominium rentals. And the number of reservations for the rest of the summer is a fraction of the usual.

If the area becomes like a ghost town because of people leaving I don't think that will hurt Flag. But if the area becomes intolerable because of the smell or other toxic consequences then the Church and its local public will have to move. And their properties will be worthless.

While people can not pick up and move their entire life so easily, capital in the banks can. As long as there is uncertainty about this area's future, there will be an exodus of capital.

Two weeks ago I had lunch with two Europeans who are on lines at the Sandcastle. They knew nothing of the spill. They were actually surprised when I told them.

There is a feeling of dread and a growing despair that is permeating this area; you can sense it in the local newscasts, in restaurants, in the malls. It kind of reminds me a little of the movie based on the novel "On the beach."

The last thing we need now is an active hurrican season.

The Anabaptist Jacques

 

[Infinite]

Just like Scientology . . . its worse than you think.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

 

[Dulloldfart]

Assorted idiots have suggested using a subsea nuclear bomb to seal the leak.

/ facepalm

There are roughly 3,500 offshore oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. A large percentage of these rigs are operated by BP.

I leave it to others to connect the dots.

I don't know if it is a feasible risk or not. If the alternative is the entire billion-barrel reservoir bleeding out over the next two or three decades, then the risks look different.

I don't think they would do it before either the sea floor collapses in the area, or the two relief wells are shown to have succeeded or failed. On the other hand, I don't know if it is feasible to use a nuke *after* the sea floor has collapsed.

I haven't seen any kind of worst-case prediction on what would be the likely effects of a total bleed-out. Are we talking the end of civilisation world-wide as we know it? Extinction level event for almost all life on Earth? Major economic and environmental calamity for the US, major economic calamity for the rest of the world but survivable? Or what? I don't know at all.

And this is assuming they do what is most sensible. The US Government isn't renowned for taking actions based on what would be best for humanity. If the people calling the shots are rubbing their hands and thinking "Oh goody, the Rapture will be sooner than we thought!" that might sway their hand far more than a cold, hard study.

Paul

 

[altruistichedonist]

WEEP FOR GAIA

Consider the idea that the planet you live on is a thinking entity.
Consider the idea that human civilizations have come and gone many times on this planet and were entirely extinguished to such an extent that even the most brilliant archaeologists have found no trace of them.

...

Consider the anthill that was ruining your lawn.

What did you do?

 

[The Anabaptist Jacques]

I am far from knowledgable on this subject, but it seems to me that the attempts to stop the leak are designed with the result in mind to protect the well rather than just to stop the leak.

The Anabaptist Jacques

 

[nozeno]

Consider the idea that the planet you live on is a thinking entity.
Consider the idea that human civilizations have come and gone many times on this planet and were entirely extinguished to such an extent that even the most brilliant archaeologists have found no trace of them.

...

Consider the anthill that was ruining your lawn.

What did you do?

​

 

[The Anabaptist Jacques]

​

Is that a bag of fire ant chips?

The Anabaptist Jacques

 

[nozeno]

Is that a bag of fire ant chips?

The Anabaptist Jacques

Yes. Low salt.

 

[Dulloldfart]

I am far from knowledgable on this subject, but it seems to me that the attempts to stop the leak are designed with the result in mind to protect the well rather than just to stop the leak.

The Anabaptist Jacques

They are. If the well pipe develops holes or is broken and starts to leak oil into the surrounding porous rock and allows it to get up to the surface *through the rock* it is impossible to plug it using known technology, as far as I know. This may already have happened. I don't think it is so much a question of trying to save a few million on the cost of drilling another well, as the scale of this thing is already well into the tens of billions.

Paul

 

[Div6]

They are. If the well pipe develops holes or is broken and starts to leak oil into the surrounding porous rock and allows it to get up to the surface *through the rock* it is impossible to plug it using known technology, as far as I know. This may already have happened. I don't think it is so much a question of trying to save a few million on the cost of drilling another well, as the scale of this thing is already well into the tens of billions.

Paul

BP (and Halliburton) have killed the Gulf.

See this: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6614

Halliburton engineers were skeptical about the integrity of the well, and the procedures the BP engineers were using in early April, and stated that the casing were not to Halliburton best practice standards. To BP, its just money...they agreed to set up a $20 billion dollar fund...

But we are talking a whole ecosystem completely trashed......there is no amount of money that could make up that damage.

 

[AngeloV]

I know it's not really a spill, but "oil leak" doesn't quite evoke the right image.

There is an article on 'Firms “suspending investments in Florida banks” because of oil spill' at http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/firms-suspending-investments-in-florida-banks-because-of-oil-spill.

There are mentions of the first traces of BP oil nearing Tampa Bay.

It is possible that this fiasco will result in the sea floor collapsing around the site of the drill hole (see this article), and the whole reservoir will bleed out, i.e., an estimated billion barrels (40 billion gallons) of oil gushing out at the current rate of maybe 100,000 barrels a day for 25-30 years. That would be very roughly 300 times the amount of oil that has been released to date.

With 25 hurricane seasons blowing the surface stuff all over the coast, that would make the Gulf coast not the nicest place to live, if the coastal areas will even be livable at all with the air pollution. I can see several insurance companies going tits up over this disaster.

Maybe Flag in Clearwater will shut down for different reasons than we expected.

Paul

Of course this won't shutdown Flag! Mis-cabbage will gather all the world's OT VIII's on an 'all-hands' balls-to-the-wall Hill 10 handling and as-is the oil spill when it approaches Clearwater beach. They will all stand atop the FH and create a beam of theta intention at the gulf. All of the wogs will be filled with wonderment when they realize that the 'miracle' will insure that their sparkling white beaches will remain unblemished by tar balls. Scio will henceforth be known as the 'savior of the gulf'. Stats will go through the roof and the SP building will finally be completed.

Or not.

 

[Mick Wenlock]

Well there are advantages to studying Mining at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne (over and above the 7 bars on four floors of the Student Union building...)

The rig that exploded is not the only rig tapped into the field. So the entire field will not "bleed out".

The most comprehensive and sensible plan is to drill another well that taps into the existing one. As they know exactly where the original bore is this is fairly "easy" to do. The problem is that it requires another production rig and they don't keep those handy. It would be no good to drill the well without having the means to control the flow.

I think the stuff BP has been trying has been for the cameras and for the US Government because, to be frank, if you study the pressures involved it is incredibly difficult to "cap" something like this. Part of a production rigs job is to control the flow - it is not like a faucet where they just turn the tap. In order to control the flow from a full production well you need a full production rig. There are a number of enormously good reasons why oil companies pay hundreds of millions of dollars to build them and site them and why they pay very good money to people to run them. It is not easy. You cannot just urn off the flow.

So they can't just lower down a big concrete plug or stick a large drain stopper. They cannot even just stick another pipe in there and sort of siphon it off - the pressures will blow all of them.

But BP cannot be seen to be standing around waiting for the real equipment to arrive - they have to be seen to be doing something. Like being in an org on a Wednesday night at 2 am when there is no-one around, the GI is way down and you have some idiot screaming "make it go right" in your ear. So you pick up a phone and call someone, anyone, just to be seen to be willing to do "something"

And for those who wonder why the Federal Government just doesn't "take over" it's because they do not have anywhere near the expertise that BP has. They also do not have the equipment.

IMHO what the government should be doing is maybe putting together a panel of engineers to review BPs plans, insisting that BP actually execute the best, most feasible plan - no matter what it is going to take. It is no good threatening them or looking for asses to kick. Lets kick the asses when its fixed.

And then, second to that take another panel of engineers as control and, with BPs dime, coordinate containment and clean up and find the best companies to handle a) oil on the sea b) oil just offshore and c) oil on the beaches and wetlands. They are three completely separate skill sets. Find the best companies and insist they get hired and give them room to do their jobs. The dutch oil skimmers for example have had great success with smaller leaks, so contracting the will alleviate part of the problem, and so on. The US Army Corps of engineers has awesome experience at barriers and berms and tidal areas. Make them in charge of the onshore ops.

Just my $0.02

I don't know if it is a feasible risk or not. If the alternative is the entire billion-barrel reservoir bleeding out over the next two or three decades, then the risks look different.

I don't think they would do it before either the sea floor collapses in the area, or the two relief wells are shown to have succeeded or failed. On the other hand, I don't know if it is feasible to use a nuke *after* the sea floor has collapsed.

I haven't seen any kind of worst-case prediction on what would be the likely effects of a total bleed-out. Are we talking the end of civilisation world-wide as we know it? Extinction level event for almost all life on Earth? Major economic and environmental calamity for the US, major economic calamity for the rest of the world but survivable? Or what? I don't know at all.

And this is assuming they do what is most sensible. The US Government isn't renowned for taking actions based on what would be best for humanity. If the people calling the shots are rubbing their hands and thinking "Oh goody, the Rapture will be sooner than we thought!" that might sway their hand far more than a cold, hard study.

Paul

 

[Dulloldfart]

The rig that exploded is not the only rig tapped into the field. So the entire field will not "bleed out".

The most comprehensive and sensible plan is to drill another well that taps into the existing one. As they know exactly where the original bore is this is fairly "easy" to do. The problem is that it requires another production rig and they don't keep those handy. It would be no good to drill the well without having the means to control the flow.

Great! So if they have one proper hole in the field, and this rogue one, then maybe only half of it will flood out. And if they have two proper holes into the field, maybe only one third of the oil will empty into the Gulf and so on. It all helps.

That article I linked to, or maybe one of its references, explains that it's not that easy to drill diagonally into the current bore hole. It's easy on paper, but in real life (I read) the drill bit squirms around a bit seeking the easiest path through the rock and hitting another shaft hundreds of feet or even thousands of feet down (under the sea bed) is difficult. Since the casing appears to be fractured, they would have to drill down below the fractures where the oil is seeping into the rock otherwise the "relief" well(s) is useless.

Paul

 

[NonScio]

Water Pressure at the well head is about 3000 psi. Ive seen
quoted figures of anywhere from 22,000 to 30,000 psi as the
pressure of the upsurging oil. The estimates of 100,000 bbls
per day flowing out seem really fantastic....probably the most
any well anywhere has ever produced. An excellent (and
highly profitable) flow of an oil well would be around 12,000 bbls per day...
typical of Mid East wells.

If nothing else is done, the well will flow until the upsurging oil pressure
drops to 3000 psi. Theres a long time and a lot of oil in the sea
before that happens naturally. Best bet is the drilling of "relief"
wells, actually as many as possible, to allow the pressurized oil
to come up under controlled conditions rather than only at the break.
Additional wells will also lower the pressure at the broken well head
and perhaps make sealing it possible.

The engineers trying to deal with this are of course limited by
WOG science, by MEST physics. That's why it is so important
that the SEA ORG be called in to handle this. What's a mere
30,000 PSI when you can generate multi Billions of Gigawatts
of power by merely postulating it? There are allegedly hundreds in
the Sea Org who are capable of handling the whole mess.
I've seen it stated (the billions of Gigawatts) in very slick
scientology publications which clog my mailbox. Publications
which, (in their millions) stuffed down the oil well just might
stop the leak. The SEA ORG really ouuta take care of this...
if for no other reason than their Flagship, the Freewinds (aka "Deathwinds)
will get awfully mucked up, turn awful black, as they ply the
Carribbean waters.

But what if the the SEA ORG turns out to be actually the SEE ORG?
All show and no do? Well, then its back to WOG science, MEST
Physics. No Billion Gigawatts of energy directed at the well hole,
no Deathwinds rushing to the rescue. Just more muck until
the WOGs somehow manage to handle it.

 

[Dulloldfart]

The estimates of 100,000 bbls
per day flowing out seem really fantastic....probably the most
any well anywhere has ever produced. An excellent (and
highly profitable) flow of an oil well would be around 12,000 bbls per day...
typical of Mid East wells.

Yeah, but that is in a controlled flow where it does what you want it to. If you had a pipe 10 metres across sunk into a field then that could maybe produce ten million barrels a day, but you'd need impossible equipment to control it with. (I didn't do the maths).

Why do they use bbls as an abbreviation for barrels?

Paul

 

[NonScio]

I'm not sure where the abbreviation for barrels comes from.
The oil pocket at the disaster is about 2 miles below the sea
bed...so there are about 10,000 feet of drilled hole beneath the
sea bed. That's through solid rock. Not sure of the diameter
of the bore...maybe 19" ?

 

[Dulloldfart]

I'm not sure where the abbreviation for barrels comes from.
The oil pocket at the disaster is about 2 miles below the sea
bed...so there are about 10,000 feet of drilled hole beneath the
sea bed. That's through solid rock. Not sure of the diameter
of the bore...maybe 19" ?

I looked it up. From Wikipedia at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrel_(volume):

The "b" may have been doubled originally to indicate the plural (1 bl, 2 bbl), or possibly it was doubled to eliminate any confusion with bl as a symbol for the bale. Some sources claim that "bbl" originated as a symbol for "blue barrels" delivered by Standard Oil in its early days; this is probably incorrect because there are citations for the symbol at least as early as the late 1700s, long before Standard Oil was founded.[9]​

I don't know the diameter either. I'll come back and edit this when I find out.

Paul