Curiosus: Scientology Statistics OT VI, VII, VIII completion lists from 1982 to 2012

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Scientology Statistics - OT VI, VII, VIII completion lists from 1982 to 2012
http://curiosus-scn.blogspot.fr/2012/08/scientology-statistics-ot-6-7-8.html
Scientology Statistics - OT VI, VII, VIII completion lists from 1982 to 2012

I have been a Scientologist for about 15 years. When I began having doubts about the church in the late nineties, I looked at its statistics in order to evaluate its condition. That is not easy as the statistics are not in the public domain.

But that is possible to count the attestations of upper levels published in the Source and Freewinds magazines. In my opinion, the OT6, OT7 and OT8 levels are the main product of the church, thus the statistics about these levels are a good indicator of the condition of the church.

Graph

Scn+stats+2012+graph.gif


Raw data

SEE ORIGINAL BLOG POST

According to the Source magazine issued in August 2012, there are nearly 6000 OT VI.

As there are missing data for 1983, 1984 and 1985, the figure of 5419 is coherent.

There are some missing data. This can be checked with the Solo Nots newsletter volume 1 issue 5 issued in 1997 that is listing 3280 OT6 completions, when the table above gives 2992 OT6 completions from 1982 to 1997. This means that there were probably about 288 OT6 completions in 1983 and 1984.

Analysis

The condition for the last 10 years is Emergency.
As that is a persistent condition, the condition is eventually Danger.

There were no OT7 attestations from 1997 to 2000. That is a consequence of the Golden Age of Tech. People who were on the level had to restart from the beginning by doing the Solo Nots certainty course.

Many an OT7 had to do this level twice, so the number of individual OT7 is less than 3625.

The release of the Golden Age of Tech was followed by a collapse.

The release of the Golden Age of Knowledge did not change the main trends.

In the last 3 years, the OT6 attestations collapsed gradually from 301 to 125.

This should theoretically be followed by a collapse of OT7 attestations in the years to come.

If scientologists were aware of these figures, they would know that something has to be radically changed in the church.
 

programmer_guy

True Ex-Scientologist
Re: Curiosus: Scientology Statistics OT VI, VII, VIII completion lists from 1982 to

As was mentioned:

I wonder how accurate these are. (Although this provides some general idea.)
It would be difficult to assess how many multiple attests to the same level occurred.
 

Student of Trinity

Silver Meritorious Patron
Re: Curiosus: Scientology Statistics OT VI, VII, VIII completion lists from 1982 to

This is very interesting, but even apart from the major issue of accuracy of the data, I think there's an interpretation issue. Namely, a time delay.

It takes a while to get up the 'Bridge' as far as OT6, to even get onto this graph. And people can fall off the 'Bridge' at any time, for various reasons. So if for example there's a surge of late OT's starting in 2001, this could be because there was a surge of new public getting started at the beginning at some much earlier point. 2001 would just be the time when the remnants of that surge of beginners all reached OT6. But I suppose it could also be that in 2001 there was for some reason a big pile of people stuck on OT5, who had been there for ages, and in 2001 something suddenly got unstuck, and a wave moved on to OT6.

There are even more possibilities, it seems to me, for explaining declines. If what this chart shows was real, and not just an artifact of bad data, then there was an enormous crash in upper OTs in the early 1990's. This could be because there was a terrific crash in beginner numbers some years before, or because a lot of people all got tired of endless solo auditing and quit, or just because there had been a wave of suddenly unstuck OTs a few years before, and they all got through and then that wave was gone, and the new low level was the new normal.

In other words, we shouldn't try to interpret graphs like this using Hubbard-think, where whatever looks good on Thursday at 2 pm must be the real story. Statistics are the beginning of some kinds of wisdom, not the end.

(Hubbard's vaunted analysis tools, his administration by statistics and his 'Data Series', are incredibly crude. They're like trying to fix a complex machine with a mallet, because you've heard that great results can be gained with a strange tool called a torque wrench, which exerts force. Yes, statistics and logical analysis can be tremendously useful; but only if they're really done right, and doing them right is a hell of a lot harder than Hubbard made them out to be.)
 

PirateAndBum

Gold Meritorious Patron
Re: Curiosus: Scientology Statistics OT VI, VII, VIII completion lists from 1982 to

Inspector General Network Bulletin Number 39, entitled “Your Progress to OT (Arbitraries Cancelled)” Dated 6 June 1999

This was GAT for OTs

All prior OT 7 and 8 completions had to redo OT 6 & go back and do more Solo NOTs at this point which is why you see the jump in the following few years.

Interesting how the completions jumped when OT 8 was released, how convenient for them to have so many comps to feed to the ExpensiveWinds.
 
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