Udarnik
Gold Meritorious Patron
80% of SO at Flag are Russian nationals??? That is WILD! Have to think about that statement a bit.
Leland, treat this information the way a trained intelligence analyst is trained to take in information.
Now, please, don't take this as an attack on Jillian. And Jillian, if you are reading this, this is an example, albeit an extreme one, of how trained wogs analyze data.
OK, here is how an intelligence analyst would look at this.
Look at the source. What is her affiliation and motivation? How does this affect reliability?
A: Firmly Ex-Sea Org, pissed off at DM, blew completely and went to uber-SP Karen #1. However, Hubbard's mind-fuck is long lasting, source may have residual effects. Must evaluate each statement from her on a case-by-case basis.
Do these factors seem to have an impact on this particular piece of data?
A: No, not really. Nothing in this observation really violates any residual mental effects of $CN (if she were talking about psychs, I might be inclined to look harder, but she's talking about observations in the SO).
What is her observational acumen, intelligence, and education?
A: Seems natively intelligent. Was observant enough to try to protect herself from fiberglass hazards. Education unknown, likely Sea Org influenced. Likely moderate to low knowledge of languages and geography outside the US, which is not all that high in non-SO educated Americans to begin with.
What was the source of her information? Is she likely spreading disinformation, or was fed disinformation? Did her observational position give a limited view, or broad view? Is she extrapolating from experience that may be limited, or giving an only direct observations?
A: Source appears to be direct observation. Is Flag so large that she might have been stuck in a unit that happened to be Russian while others are not? I defer to others here, but my working assumption is that Flag is so small she would have a reasonably broad view wherever she was posted. There was no reason to feed her disinformation, as I doubt when she was at Flag people suspected she was going to blow. And there is pretty much no way she is a double agent.
However, is unclear and unlikely she saw the actual passports to make a conclusive ID.
Would she have anything to gain from disinformation?
A: Certain aspects of her story might make her seem more sympathetic if embellished, but this isn't one of those aspects.
Is what she reporting within her field of experience or expertise?
A: This is the tricky one. Probably not. Either in terms of statistics or geography / linguistics. I'm happy to be corrected if I'm wrong. We know from Black Rob's thread that many who are assumed by the world at large to be Russian Scientologists are actually from other Eastern European countries. Many Eastern speak Russian as a second language, and it would become a sort of Lingua Franca at Flag if there were a significant number of Eastern Europeans there. Not sure how her stats were gathered.
So, the intelligence analyst in me rates this information as:
High probability that the core message is solid. Details and extent of statistics may be fuzzy. Data needed further on exact nationalities and numbers.
Practical conclusion: Best guesstimate is that Flag is now 60% ± 20% foreign nationals, high probability Eastern European. Probably speak Russian among themselves, though other languages that sound Russian to the untrained ear (e.g. Bulgarian, Ukranian, Byelorussian, Serbian) may be the actual language used. May be Russian ethnics from other countries or using the second language to avoid being spied upon, and these technical non-Russians would self-identify as "Russian" to an American simply to avoid confusion.


I hope some of them come out soon and write some books!


