Was Marty just waiting, angling for a payoff from Miscavige all along?
I remember when Marty first started blogging. There were a few people who thought he might be working for OSA, trying to gain the confidence of ex-members or journalists, collecting as much information on them as he could, so that he and Miscavige could protect Scientology from its inevitable decline in the age of the Internet.
The more critical of Miscavige Marty got, and the more damage it was doing, the less this theory held any weight. However, it might not seem so silly now as it did to me then because of the way Marty has turned on his friends. I still don't believe it though.
Miscavige showed tremendous perseverance and patience in spending millions to have Pat Broeker followed, but up until the end that was in secret and not generating negative publicity for Scientology. The things Marty was doing were damaging. Marty opened the door on other high level executives and Scientologists speaking out, even though, initially, I understand now that Marty had to be coaxed by some ex-Scientologists friends to speak out, and get out of his funk.
Assuming Marty has accepted a sizable payoff, there are two main theories of Marty's motivations:
Theory #1: Marty has been angling for a payoff from the very beginning of his blog
Using his inside knowledge of the things which drive Miscavige to react in certain ways, Marty began a calculated effort to get a payoff from him. His whole foray into Indie Scientology was not so much because he thought that would ever be successful, but because he knew it might prompt Miscavige to try to shut him down with a payoff.
Another thing Marty did was keep suggesting on his blog that he had some seriously damning secret information on Miscavige, something he needed to save to protect himself should Miscavige come after him legally. While I doubt this is true, I don't know it to be false either.
If Marty had stuck to his Indie principles, he would have missed out in key participation in GOING CLEAR the documentary, as well as Louis Theroux's movie, and other TV and journalistic pieces. As pointed out to me recently by HelluvaHoax, Marty shifted from Indie Scientology to eventually saying "I am not a Scientologist," by first causing a rift over literal vs. symbolic or metaphorical interpretation of the "scriptures," beginning with everyone's favorite evil galactic overlord, Xenu.
Marty lost most of his Indie following in a matter of a few months over these issues, including the person he used to tout as his tech expert (or at least "a" tech expert in Scientology), Jim Logan.
As Miscavige's former right-hand man, even as an Indie, Marty would always be interviewed, but he realized he'd probably be more high profile in the media if he relaxed the Indie shtick. He could turn David Miscavige into a household name for being a violent, controlling little man if he focused on that, as he had the opportunity to do in MY SCIENTOLOGY MOVIE.
More opportunities came Marty's way -- he could feel himself getting closer to a payoff -- when Miscavige could not stop surveilling and harassing Marty. And even when he wasn't there, they kept following and harassing his wife also. Mosey's court case began, looked bad for the Church, and Miscavige made an offer Marty couldn't refuse.
Theory #2: Marty wandered into the payoff from a set of circumstances
After Marty left, he could have ignored Scientology, except maybe as a private pursuit, had it not been for ex-members who encouraged him to blog and start speaking out against David Miscavige, the abuses he saw and in some cases was a part of.
Marty became enthralled with running a half-way house of sorts, and that he was helping people, and that he would lead Independent Scientology to new heights. He was reading a lot of non-Scientology books and trying to incorporate it all into Scientology. His blog followers loved this.
Marty and Mike both endured a lot of criticism from Anonymous, because people wanted to know about their exact roles in specific operations, and neither of them were very forthcoming on that. They both wanted to talk about Miscavige a lot, but not so much themselves. For a couple years there, Mike said very little about how he felt about Scientology.
It wasn't only Anonymous but ex-members and other critics of Scientology also who were frustrated with these two. After all, we see that Hubbard had nearly everything to do with the problem with Scientology today. He created disconnection. He created David Miscavige in so many ways. Or at least he created the system which allowed David Miscavige to flourish.
When Marty started waking up to this, and became quite articulate about real problems with Hubbard and Scientology, I thought it was wonderful seeing this growth. I understood that Marty still thought Scientology had some value, that he got things out of it, but he was also seeing its downside and problems clearly.
Before this, I thought Marty had the idea that because of his Scientology, it gave him unlimited human potential. He wanted to develop as a writer and write the great American novel. The failure and criticism of his books bothered him a lot. It is one reason he lashes out at others so harshly, or doesn't mind doing it.
Early in his blog, when his writing was particularly terrible, people in the comments would sometimes say what a great writer he was. But he also got endless criticism, not only for his writing, but for flaws in his thinking, and for authoritative pronouncements, whether it was about the value of Hubbard's technology, or something else.
When Miscavige started going at him with the film crew and Squirrel Busters, house across the street with a crew watching him, Marty could probably envision that going on for the rest of his life, unless he found a way to put a stop to it. He would never be free of it, unless he had the opportunity to strike a private deal with Miscavige, which would allow Miscavige and Scientology to not lose any face, be humiliated.
So the difference between these theories is #2 has Marty being more human, driven by criticism and the relentless pursuit by Miscavige which he just did not want to live with for the rest of his life. Even if Mosey's case had gone to court and they'd won a huge settlement, he felt that Miscavige would pursue him relentlessly for the rest of his life. And so it is #2 which I think is closer to the truth, although it could also be a blend of both theories.